The Bet

by Paul Sabin

First published 2013

In 1980, economist Julian Simon issued a bold challenge to celebrity biologist Paul Ehrlich. Their public wager centered on whether five metal prices would rise or fall over the next decade. The bet captured America's attention as a test between two competing visions of the future. Ehrlich, who had written The Population Bomb, believed growing populations would trigger resource shortages and environmental collapse. Simon countered that human creativity and free markets would deliver greater prosperity. Paul Sabin traces how this famous wager reflected deeper national divisions about environmental protection and government regulation. The story unfolds from the environmental awakening of the 1960s through the Reagan era and into the 1990s. Sabin shows how the Simon-Ehrlich debate helped create the persistent divide between environmentalists and free market advocates. Rather than declaring either side the winner, he argues that social values should guide decisions about climate change and planetary health.

Genres: history, 20th-century, economics, environment, 21st-century, academic

Vibes: intimate, suspenseful, thought-provoking

Tropes: debate, enemies-to-lovers

Setting: America

Period: 1960s, 1980s, 1990s, Reagan Era

320 pages · Hardcover · Yale University Press

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