First published 2013
The 2008 financial crisis shattered Alan Greenspan's faith in economic models. No major decision maker saw the collapse coming. Their forecasting tools had failed completely. Greenspan responds by launching a comprehensive investigation into how economists predict the future and how they might do it better. He examines the history of economic prediction and incorporates insights from behavioral economics. The book tackles fundamental questions about economic risk, which affects every aspect of life from personal finances to government policy. Greenspan argues that people navigate by outdated mental maps while unconscious factors drive their choices. He explores whether culture determines economic outcomes and analyzes major future challenges including debt crises, welfare reform, and climate disasters. The author draws on decades of experience to distinguish what economists can reliably forecast from what remains unknowable.
Genres: politics, economics, non-fiction, 21st-century, finance, academic
Vibes: thought-provoking
Tropes: investigation
Period: 2008
400 pages · Hardcover · Penguin Press