First published 2025
Economic historian Carl Benedikt Frey argues that technological and economic progress is not inevitable. For most of human history, stagnation was normal. Even today, the United States and China fall short of growth expectations. Frey examines 1,000 years of global history to explain why some societies thrive while others collapse after rapid technological change. He studies key moments from the steam engine to artificial intelligence, analyzing why Song China, the Dutch Republic, and Victorian Britain lost their innovative advantages. He investigates Japan's rapid growth followed by stagnation and the Soviet Union's collapse after brief progress surges. Frey identifies a recurring pattern: decentralization encourages technological exploration, but bureaucracy is necessary for scaling innovations. When institutions cannot adapt to technological change, stagnation follows. Only nations that balance decentralization and bureaucracy can sustain long-term innovation and growth. This analysis carries troubling implications for current major economies. The book offers readers historical lessons for managing future technological transitions.
Genres: history, science, political-science, economics, non-fiction, academic
Vibes: thought-provoking
Tropes: historical-analysis
Period: 1000 Years, Song China, Dutch Republic, Victorian Britain, Japan, Soviet Union
552 pages · Hardcover · Princeton University Press